Autonomous Vehicle OEM Launch Timelines, Penetration, and Forecast

Autonomous vehicles launch timelines by OEMs & robotic vehicle companies (robotaxi, shuttles, pods, long-haul platooning trucks); market penetration & sales demand by levels of automation (level 1, level 2/2+2++, level 3, level 4 – highway, level 4/5 – ur

Published: 13 Jan 2020

Key Highlights


With the ACES mobility research and analysis platform, M14 Intelligence is bringing the most in-depth analysis of autonomous, connected, electric, and shared mobility industry. This report plays a part in assisting stakeholders in understanding the possible autonomous vehicles launch timelines of leading OEM brands across passenger and commercial vehicles industry. 

Report in numbers – 

150+ pages of analysis on AV timelines, penetration, and forecast
More than 70 OEMs (passenger and commercial) analyzed
More than 30 robotic vehicle companies analyzed
100+ data tables and infographics on AV analysis
Interviews with 60+ stakeholders
Analysis of top markets including US, China, & Western Europe 

Exhaustive Coverage


In this study, you will find detailed analysis on every aspect of future demand for autonomous vehicles. Some of the critical analysis covered in the report are as follows:

  • Analysis of 70+ OEM brands both traditional and new autonomous players across passenger and commercial vehicles ecosystem.
  • Analyzing the communicated time-to-market for SAE level 3 and level 4 AVs with solutions such as highway autopilot, urban autopilot, and automated valet parking, among others by leading OEM brands and new AV players
  • Analysis of on-demand AV fleet for mobility-as-a-service such as robotaxis, autonomous shuttle, pods, and delivery vehicles
  • Analyzing the current status of automation in automotive industry, and identifying potential future demand for AVs till 2040
  • Analyzing the market penetration of each SAE levels of automation across major automotive markets globally
  • Identifying OEM strategies and markets for monetizing the AV
 
ADAS and Autonomous Vehicles Levels from Level 1 to Level 4/5 across passenger and commercial vehicles


With this research, we aim to bring a fact-based evaluation of the AVs. As consultants, we also look forward to help you create your next go-to market strategy to position yourself as a key player in this swiftly evolving AV landscape. 

Market Overview


What once was only a concept, autonomous driving is now an industry that is pumped with billions of dollars every year and increasing.
The stakes are very high as the industry has witnessed over 100 billion dollars in investments, funding, mergers, and acquisitions. This also means that automotive OEMs and tech players are aggressively mapping their roadmap to true autonomous driving. However, accessing the industry’s developments and regulatory frameworks, the true autonomous vehicle (AV) is still a distant future. Although, it seems like enabling technology providers are ready, there are many hurdles to overcome to attain the goal.
The year 2020 of pandemic has further piled challenges in the development of AVs and impelled the OEMs to reassess their go-to market strategies. OEMs are finding it difficult to invest in robust R&D of AD with the declining revenues for 2020. Ford and GM have added a year or so of postponement to their AVs and robotaxis launch timelines; Audi had suspended its development of level 3 A8 production in the U.S.; Mercedes and BMW have put on hold their joint AV development; and few of the self-driving commercial vehicle companies have discontinued their operations. Regulatory policy was the major challenge till date and now the pandemic has further attributed the slow down. However, the tech enablers are putting forth their smartest moves possible. Acquisitions and investments for higher stakes have been recognized as the prime strategies of these players.
The volatility of the market has provoked each stakeholder to rethink its strategies and define new path towards future mobility.

Automotive industry will move from focusing on automation levels to focusing on automation use cases in different environments. Robotaxis in passenger vehicles industry will be the first to witness commercialization on large scale post 2022 with Waymo and Tesla to lead the way. Waymo is experimenting with its machine learning algorithms in prediction of road environment with millions of kms in real world on-road testing and virtual simulations. The post pandemic sentiments in the consumer could be a major deterrent in autonomous shared mobility demand, however things might change with time
Level 2++ or level 3 features such as Traffic Jam Assist and Highway Pilot will be limited to private cars while urban traffic will witness use of robotaxis and autonomous shuttles along with automated valet parking
Long-haul platooning, autonomous shuttles, and autonomous delivery of goods are expected to be the first use cases of automation in commercial vehicles post 2025.

Expected Passenger and Commercial Vehicles Sales Demand and Forecast by Levels of Automation


Industry is moving towards supplier-based automation roadmap where technology development costs and cost to consumer is the basis in deciding the launch timelines by the OEMs.
Suppliers ecosystem is ready for the next-big thing, however the regulatory frameworks across major automotive markets is the major deciding factor on when and how the automation will arrive. Chinese regulators are pushing the market for early adoption while the regulations in US are still developing.
Demand for level 3 automation in China will surpass developed markets of US and Western European countries by 2025
Level 4 automation in private passenger vehicle is still a matter of distant future as the cost of the system and consequently the vehicle needs to go down for large scale adoption

Autonomous Driving Technology Development and Ranking Index of Top 100 players in the ADAS and Autonomous Driving Industry - across OEMs, Tier 1s, Autonomous Driving Solutions Players, and Robotic Vehicle Companies. Note- this is not an exhaustive list. The report analyzes more than 100 players in total on similar parameters


Key Questions Answered


  • What is the current status of vehicle automation in passenger and commercial vehicles industry?
  • When will we see true autonomous driving on roads?
  • Which companies will be the first to enter volume production of AVs?
  • What are the different ways in which OEMs, Tier 1s, and new AV tech players going to monetize autonomous driving?
  • What is the communicated time-to-market by the leading OEMs and tech companies?
  • When is level 3 AVs expected on North American roads?
  • How are the regulatory frameworks being developed across major automotive markets?
  • What is the status of Chinese AV industry developments? And how are the Chinese OEMs, tech players, and Tier 1s approaching autonomy?
  • Which markets are expected to drive the demand for AVs?
  • How will autonomy be introduced first in robotaxis, shuttles, pods, and autonomous delivery vehicles?
  • Which markets are expected to have highest market penetration of autonomy?
  • How is autonomy being developed in commercial vehicles industry?
  • Who are the leading players in robotic vehicles ecosystem, ADAS passenger vehicles ecosystem, and ADAS commercial vehicles ecosystem?
  • How is the market penetration of different levels of autonomy change in major economies?
  • What is the projected sales demand for all the levels of autonomy in major automotive markets?
  • At what AV development stage are the leading OEMs and AV tech players?
  • When will level 4 autonomy be introduced in private vehicles?

List of Companies


Waymo

Tesla

Daimler

Volvo Cars

Uber

General Motors

Lyft

Audi

Volvo Group

BAIC Group

Ford Motors

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles Group

Volkswagen

Toyota Motors

TRI-Toyota Research Institute

Audi AID - Autonomous Intelligent Driving

Hyundai

Renault-Nissan

Zoox

AutoX

Baidu

BMW

BYD

GEELY

Yandex

TuSimple

Navya




*not an exhaustive list

View The Abstract


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