M14 Intelligence. Autonomous, Connected, Electric, and Shared Mobility Research and Analysis

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Market Overview
Key Questions
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Autonomous Driving LiDAR Technology Market, Edition 2018

Expected mass production timelines of LiDAR for autonomous driving, target cost, LiDAR technologies analysis, LiDAR supplier’s competition assessment and mapping, and component level analysis (VCSEL and photodiodes)

Published: 15 Sep 2018

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Key Highlights

Industry’s first deep-level assessment and forecast of LiDAR technology market for connected autonomous driving application

· More than 250 pages of analysis

· 40+ emerging LiDAR suppliers analyzed

· 50+ component-level suppliers analyzed

· 100+ data tables on penetration, sales demand, and pricing

· 80+ deep-level infographics on the market

· Dedicated 40+ interviews conducted with key players

· Deep company profiles of more than 20+ key players

· LiDAR mass production timeline anticipated

· Analysis of top LiDARs expected to be commercialized

· Analysis of target cost of LiDARs for mass production

Exhaustive Coverage

The report gives a helicopter view on the multiple facets of the LiDAR technology as a market for autonomous driving and connected vehicles application. Each of these facets that defines the future of LiDAR sensing are briefed below.

Where is the demand for LiDAR sensors?

Demand for LiDAR sensor analyzed by higher levels of autonomy – level 3 (conditional automation features of Highway Autopilot and Traffic Jam Assists in passenger vehicles while Long-haul platooning in trucks), level 4 (high automation features of Highway Autopilot, Automated Valet Parking, and slow-urban moving robotic vehicles such as robotaxis, autonomous shuttles, autonomous pods or delivery vehicles), and future possibility of level 5 vehicles

Estimated timelines for mass production of LiDAR sensors in different levels of autonomy, estimated number of LiDAR sensors required in the sensor suite for high autonomy, expected LiDAR technologies to be first to commercialize, and estimated LiDAR cost for volume production is analyzed

LiDAR integration for conditional (level 3) and high-to-full automation (level 4/5) with solutions

Who will be the potential winners in this race?

Analysis of leading LiDAR suppliers and new entrants; identified, analyzed, and estimated which LiDAR technology developed by these players will be the first to achieve mass production
The major technologies analyzed are – mechanical scanning, solid-state – MEMS, OPA, 3D flash, FMCW, image grade, and spectrum scan

LiDAR sub-component level analysis and market potential for the players. The important sub-components analyzed are photodetectors (including APD, SiPM, PIN), laser illumination (including VCSEL, EEL), and optical elements (MEMS, optical filter, and other optical elements)

LiDAR technologies, their sub-components, and range

Assessing estimated autonomy package cost for Level 3 and Level 4/5 systems with LiDAR as an integral component

Identifying and analyzing leading OEM brands and robotic vehicles companies planning to integrate LiDAR sensor for high level autonomy featured vehicles

Assessing regulations and customer preferences across major automotive markets of United States, China, Japan, and Western European markets for autonomous driving

Competition assessment of leading Tier 1 suppliers to develop LiDAR sensor suites for autonomous driving

Partnership mapping between sub-component players, LiDAR suppliers, Tier 1 suppliers, and OEMs

New Entrants and investments tracker in LiDAR technology business

Recent M&As in the automotive LiDAR ecosystem and their impact on the new entrants

Market Overview

The research study exhaustively speaks about the expected timeline of mechanical scanning, MEMS solid-state, OPA, flash, and other emerging LiDAR technologies to be commercialized and witness high volumes. It focuses on LiDAR technology building approach followed by different players across the ecosystem to develop low-cost solutions. It analyzes the different partnership combinations of OEMs, robotaxi companies, autonomous shuttle players, Tier1s/2s, LiDAR supplier, and LiDAR component providers and which combination will be the first to hit mass deployment. The research also discusses about the number of LiDARs (short and long-range) required to achieve 360-degree surround-view. Besides, the report also talks about the target cost of LiDARs to achieve high volumes.

ADAS and autonomous vehicles sales forecast breakdown by levels of autonomy globally

The level 3 and above cars will be on the roads of the United States, Japan, and countries in Western Europe by 2019, whereas, highly autonomous solutions of Level 4/5 will see deployment from 2022

Estimated LiDAR pricing with mass production for mechanical scanning and solid-state LiDARs

First LiDAR commercialization – Ibeo + Valeo ScaLa LiDAR (a mechanical scanning LiDAR) for Audi A8 (a level 3 vehicle) was in mid-2017
Mechanical LiDAR sensors will witness high volumes starting from 2019. Solid-state (MEMS & OPA), flash, and other smaller and cheaper LiDAR technologies expected to witness high volumes post 2025

The total LiDAR sales expected to cross 24 million by 2030, while LiDAR market is expected to reach $14 billion by 2030

Mechanical and Solid-state LiDAR Shipment for OEM vehicles and Robotic Vehicles

Mechanical scanning LiDARs will have larger penetration in the robotaxis and autonomous shuttles. Whereas, solid-state and other cheaper options will be the first choice of the OEMs to be used in level 3 and above consumer passenger cars

Velodyne LiDAR, Ibeo Automotive System, LeddarTech, Quanergy, and Innoviz are at the forefront. Velodyne LiDAR and Ibeo are the current leaders in terms of number of partnerships and sales

Chinese market will have the largest demand in coming years and local LiDAR companies such as RoboSense, LeiShen Intelligent Systems, Hesai Photonics, and SureStar are few of the top contenders in the market

Pricing of the LiDAR will be the deciding factor for the mass production and deployment of the technology in autonomous vehicles.

Number of LiDARs depends on cost and complexity of the autonomous systems

Currently, a combination of 360-degree view LIDARs and lesser resolution LIDARs are used to enable full automation

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Key Questions Answered

What is the status of vehicle automation in 2017 and 2018? And how will it change over the period of next 10 years?
What is the impact of emerging trend of robotic vehicles on LiDAR as a market?
Many LiDAR technologies – But which ones will lead and be ready for mass deployment?
Which OEM+Tier1+LiDAR supplier partnership will be the first to witness mass deployment of LiDAR?
What will be the target cost of LiDAR at high volumes?
When and which LiDAR technologies will hit high volume production?
Who will be the leaders in the automotive LiDAR market?
When will solid-state and other cheaper LiDAR options witness high volume deployment?
What is the requirement of number of LiDARs to achieve 360-degree surround view of the vehicle?
How many cheaper LiDARs (below $500) will be needed to achieve surround view for full autonomy?