M14 Intelligence. Autonomous, Connected, Electric, and Shared Mobility Research and Analysis

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Autonomous Driving LiDAR Technology Market, Edition 2019

Expected mass production timelines of LiDAR for autonomous driving, target cost, LiDAR technologies analysis, LiDAR supplier’s competition assessment and mapping, and component level analysis (VCSEL and photodiodes)

Published: 03 Sep 2019

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Key Highlights

Industry’s first deep-level assessment and forecast of LiDAR technology market for connected autonomous driving application

More than 150 pages of analysis
40+ emerging LiDAR suppliers analyzed
20+ component-level suppliers analyzed
120+ data tables on penetration, sales demand, and pricing
80+ deep-level infographics on the market
Dedicated 40+ interviews conducted with key players
Deep company profiles of more than 20+ key players
LiDAR mass production timeline anticipated
Analysis of top LiDARs expected to be commercialized
Analysis of target cost of LiDARs for mass production

Exhaustive Coverage

The most interesting part is unlike other reports in the market this report gives the most comprehensive view on the AV landscape and LiDAR demand. The market size and sales demand are not hyped, and a conservative and realistic view of the market is projected
- VP Marketing, Leading LiDAR Manufacturer

This report is an outcome of M14 INTELLIGENCE leverage over the exhaustive research database on the AV industry and its enabling technologies. This is the second edition in the series of autonomous vehicle LiDAR research reports published by M14 INTELLIGENCE.

The report has deep dive analysis of more than 150 pages on the LiDAR technologies, its market trends, market size, shipment trends, pricing trends, competition analysis, customer preferences, and component level analysis

40+ LiDAR companies are analyzed, 20+ component level suppliers of VCSEL, EEL, APD, SiPM, PIN PD are analyzed

10+ OEMs and 10+ robotic vehicle companies across the world are analyzed

7 LiDAR technologies viz mechanical scanning, solid state MEMS, OPA, flash LiDAR, risley prism, micro motion, and FMCW are analyzed

LiDAR sensors technologies, their range of operation and sub-components used

Analysis of leading LiDAR suppliers and new entrants; identified, analyzed, and estimated which LiDAR technology developed by these players will be the first to achieve mass production
Holistic analysis of the combined impact of 7 mega trends on mobility such as automation, electrification, connected mobility, shared mobility, fleet services, HP GNSS, and mapping services are analyzed

LiDAR sales demand and market size forecast for 2 different modes of transportation OEM vehicles and robotic vehicles and 2 major technology types mechanical scanning LiDAR and solid state & flash LiDAR are analyzed. Demand for LiDAR sensor analyzed by higher levels of autonomy – level 3 (conditional automation features of Highway Autopilot and Traffic Jam Assists in passenger vehicles while Long-haul platooning in trucks), level 4 (high automation features of Highway Autopilot, Automated Valet Parking, and slow-urban moving robotic vehicles such as robotaxis, autonomous shuttles, autonomous pods or delivery vehicles), and future possibility of level 5 vehicles

LiDAR use cases for level 3, level 4 - highway autopilot, and urban autopilot applications

Assesses the underlying driving, inhibiting, challenging factors defining the importance of each trend on LiDAR market

Investments, funding, M&A, partnerships, collaborations in the LiDAR ecosystem and its impact on the LiDAR demand is analyzed

Assessing estimated autonomy package cost for Level 3 and Level 4/5 systems with LiDAR as an integral component
Identifying and analyzing leading OEM brands and robotic vehicles companies planning to integrate LiDAR sensor for high level autonomy featured vehicles
Assessing regulations and customer preferences across major automotive markets of United States, China, Japan, and Western European markets for autonomous driving
Competition assessment of leading Tier 1 suppliers to develop LiDAR sensor suites for autonomous driving
Partnership mapping between sub-component players, LiDAR suppliers, Tier 1 suppliers, and OEMs

Market Overview

Autonomous driving technology has a potential to completely revolutionize the auto industry and transportation dynamics in near future. It poses the aptitude to change the conventional way of transporting goods and passengers. The advent of self-driving technology has disrupted the auto industry opening new avenues for growth in this untapped market space. The AV wave has not only hit the automakers and suppliers but also the manufacturing industry, telecom industry, financial districts, insurance hubs, political dynamics, and technology clusters across the globe.

When will automation arrives?

M14 INTELLIGENCE research estimates that the mass level deployment of level 3 car with conditional automation features like traffic jam assist will be deployed on the Chinese and European roads by 2021, winning the race over United States

Audi has already developed the level 3 featured vehicle using ScaLa LiDAR from Valeo and Ibeo Automotive System in mid-2017. However, the level 3 traffic jam assist feature is not activated in United States and other countries yet

Robotic vehicles such as robotaxis and autonomous shuttles/pods are already featured with level 4 autonomy, and are driving in closed environments

Full scale implementation of level 4 featured robotaxis, autonomous shuttles / pods, and automated valet parking will be seen post 2021 in big economic hubs of the world

Waymo and Tesla will lead the robotaxi market race and the initial deployments would be seen in United States

ADAS and Autonomous Vehicles Sales Demand Breakdown by Levels of Automation Globally

When will lidar hit mass production?

M14 INTELLIGENCE analyzed 40+ LIDAR technology developers, 20+ emitter (VCSEL and EEL) and photodetector companies across the industry

Mechanical scanning LiDAR is the only commercialized technology currently in the market Velodyne, Ibeo Automotive Systems, Quanergy Systems, LeddarTech, and Innoviz Technologies are currently the world leaders

In 2018, the estimated number of LiDARs shipped are 98,000 units. By end of FY 2019, the sales are expected to cross 196,000 units.

The total LiDAR sales will cross million-unit mark by 2022 and will further grow to ~4.65 million by 2025. By 2030, the total LiDAR sales are expected to hit ~23.84 million units

Expected LiDAR pricing trend when automation arrives and mass production is achieved

Expected mechanical and solid-state LiDAR shipments on mass production

Key Questions Answered

What is the status of vehicle automation in 2018 and 2019? And how will it change over the period of next 10 years?
How is the emerging trend of robotaxis and autonomous shuttles disrupting the conventional automotive supply chain? And how LiDAR as a market will grow with this trend?
Many LiDAR technologies – But which ones will lead and be ready for mass deployment?
Which are the few combinations of OEMs with Tier 1s and LiDAR technology provider or OEMs with Shared Mobility Service providers and LiDAR technology providers will be the first to achieve mass deployment?
What will be the target cost of LiDAR at high volumes?
When and which LiDAR technologies will hit high volume production?
Who will be the leaders in the automotive LiDAR market?
When will solid-state and other cheaper LiDAR options witness high volume deployment?
What is the requirement of number of LiDARs to achieve 360-degree surround view of the vehicle – for OEMs, Robotaxis, and Autonomous Shuttles?
How many cheaper LiDARs (below $500) will be needed to achieve surround view for full autonomy?