ADAS & AV Technologies and Components Market, Edition 2020

ADAS and autonomous vehicles enablers shipment, market size, and pricing forecast breakdown by levels of autonomy – camera, LiDAR, radar, V2X, HA GNSS, HD maps, AI, processors, and software computing and sub-component hardware

Published: 03 Jun 2020

Key Highlights


This report is the 4th edition in the series on ADAS and autonomous vehicle technologies since 2017, published by M14 Intelligence. The purpose of this report is to enable the readers to understand the current state of ADAS and AV enabling technologies and components from market point of view and what will it be like in future in terms of demand:
 
  • Analyzing the current status of ADAS technologies and its developmental trends towards autonomous driving
  • Analyzing the communicated time-to-market for SAE level 3 and level 4 AV solutions such as highway autopilot, urban autopilot, and automated valet parking, among others by leading OEM brands, new AV players, and Tier 1 suppliers
  • Identifying the current market trends in adoption of core AV technologies that includes road environment sensing systems, computer vision & decision-making algorithms, software & hardware platforms, and contextual data interpretation  
  • Understanding and analyzing the disruption in the automotive value chain
  • Analysis of the supplier’s ecosystem with mapping across the supply chain. Along with detailed analysis of the flow of investments across the different layers of the industry
  • The report analyzes more than 300 companies across the different layers of supply chain
 
With this research, we aim to bring a fact-based evaluation of the ADAS & autonomous driving industry. As consultants, we also look forward to help you create your next go-to market strategy to position yourself as a key player in this swiftly evolving AV landscape. 

Exhaustive Coverage


This report is an outcome of M14 INTELLIGENCE leverage over the exhaustive research database on the ACES industry and its enabling technologies. Total 4 years of collective desk research and interviews by a team of 5 full-time ACES consultants. This report is the 4th successful annual publication on the ADAS and AV technology since 2017. Over 300 pages on the ADAS and AV technologies and sub-components market landscape. With 64 interviews conducted in 2019-20 and over 1500 interviews with key stakeholders till date since 2016

The report covers - 
Deep dive analysis on every enabling technology in ADAS and AV ecosystem that includes: perception & sensing hardware & software, contextual data interpretation, and AI machine learning software & hardware, 
The market analysis in terms of sales, pricing, and value of important technologies covered are:
  • 3D sensing cameras for in-cabin and world-facing applications including in-cabin/driver monitoring/gesture recognition/occupant monitoring camera, forward ADAS/main camera, thermal camera, and surround-view camera system. Along with sub-component level analysis of CMOS Image Sensors, optics, & illumination sources
  • Long-range and short/medium-range LiDAR sensing with respect to major technologies that includes mechanical scanning, OPA, solid-state, FMCW, 3D flash, among others. Along with the illumination and photodetection technologies
  • Long-range and short/medium-range radar sensing systems
  • High-precision GNSS/INS, HD maps, V2X, machine learning/AI, software stack, middleware, OS, computing hardware, data annotation, AV testing and simulation (SIL, DIL, HIL, VIL) technologies
  • Demand analysis from the perspective of passenger and commercial vehicles specifically towards: robotaxis, autonomous shuttles/pods/delivery vehicles, long-haul platooning, level 3 highway pilot, level 4 highway pilot, level 4 automated valet parking
  • Mapping of key suppliers in each technology category by levels of automation (level 1/2, level 2++/3, and level 4) and OEM brands

ADAS to Autonomous Vehicles - Levels of Automation across Passenger and Commercial Vehicles Segment


Sensor Suite, Enabling Technologies for ADAS and Autonomous Driving Application


Holistic analysis of the combined impact of mega-trends on mobility such as automation, electrification, connected mobility, shared mobility, fleet services
Investments, funding, M&A, partnerships, collaborations in the AV ecosystem and its impact on the AV demand is analyzed 
AV regulatory framework across major markets along with the analysis of AV readiness index

Market Overview


Advanced driver assistance or level 1 autonomy features are commonly found on most new consumer vehicles today. In 2019, ~XX percent (XX million cars) of the passenger vehicle sold was equipped with level 1 autonomy. While partial autonomy or level 2 system is not being installed on majority of models and higher trim-levels. In 2019, XX million (XX percent) of all the passenger vehicles sold was equipped with level 2 autonomy. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the level 1 and level 2 autonomy passenger vehicles are expected to witness sharp declines in the demand for the first half of 2020.

 Currently, the level 2 autonomy has very low market penetration of less XX percent, as it is majorly deployed on high-end models/trim levels or only in luxury cars as of now. However, as the regulations for safety driving gets mandatory across all the major automotive markets, OEMs will have to push more models and trims with level 2 features in the market, so as to obtain 4- or 5-star ratings. It is anticipated that level 2 autonomy will be the highest level of SAE autonomy level to be available for consumer purchase. 

With higher level of autonomy, the number of cameras per car also increases drastically. According to the estimates, with series production of level 3+ autonomous vehicle post 2022 the demand for all sensor types is expected to grow exponentially. By 2030, more than XX million forward cameras, XX million surround-view cameras, XX in-cabin cameras, and XX million thermal cameras are expected to be shipped in PV industry. The highest growth of XX percent is expected to be witnessed in the demand for thermal cameras, owing to its operational benefits of sensing in extreme environmental conditions such as in night, fog, rain, and direct sunlight. While the driver monitoring systems are also expected to witness high growth of XX percent, between 2020-30. The major driving force for the higher growth is owing to the regulatory push for monitoring driver behavior, as XX percent of the road-accidents occur due to the inattentiveness of the driver.

 
ADAS and Autonomous Driving Industry - Camera Shipment by Technologies and Levels of Automation


ADAS and Autonomous Driving Industry - Radar Shipment by Technologies and Levels of Automation

Common consensus is that long-range LiDARs could be used as a third front facing sensor for additional redundancy in level 3 or level 2++ systems. While level 4 autonomous OEM vehicles and robotaxis might use combination of 4 to 8 medium and long range LiDARs. For instance, currently Waymo is installing 1-rooftop long-range LiDARs and 4-short/medium range LiDARs at the front and rear corners. Other great example is of Aptiv’s system used in Lyft’s fleet of autonomous vehicles. Aptiv uses combination of 5 long-range and 4 short-range LiDARs in their autonomous systems.

 
ADAS and Autonomous Driving Industry - LiDAR content per vehicle, LiDAR Shipment by Technologies and Levels of Automation



The current L1 ADAS package cost to OEM is estimated at $XX including hardware and software cost. This cost could fall down to $XX by 2030. The cost of L2 autonomy package currently is estimated to be XX times higher ($XX) as compared to that of L1 ADAS package cost. The fall in L2 autonomy package is estimated to be flat in next five years, as many OEMs will upgrade the systems to advance levels of L2+ or L2++, which will need extra hardware and software computing. The introductory L3 autonomy package cost to OEMs is estimated at USD XX, including the hardware and software cost. The introductory software cost is estimated to be XX percent of the total cost of a L3 autonomy system. The introductory L4/5 autonomy cost to OEM is estimated at USD XX. Assuming the L4/5 system will have higher software requirements, the overall share of software value is estimated to be around XX percent. 

Key Questions Answered


  • What is the current status of vehicle automation in passenger and commercial vehicles industry?
  • When will we see true autonomous driving on roads?
  • Which companies will be the first to enter volume production of AVs?
  • What are the different ways in which OEMs, Tier 1s, and new AV tech players going to monetize autonomous driving?
  • What is the communicated time-to-market by the leading OEMs and tech companies?
  • When is level 3 AVs expected on North American roads?
  • How are the regulatory frameworks being developed across major automotive markets?
  • What is the status of Chinese AV industry developments? And how are the Chinese OEMs, tech players, and Tier 1s approaching autonomy?
  • Which markets are expected to drive the demand for AVs?
  • How will autonomy be introduced first in robotaxis, shuttles, pods, and autonomous delivery vehicles?
  • Who will win the supplier race to autonomy?
  • How are the key autonomous driving technologies evolving?
  • What is the relevance and threat of LiDAR technology in autonomous driving? And where will it be used specifically?
  • How will the LiDAR prices impact the overall sensor suite package price?
  • How are camera technologies evolving and how are the suppliers sustaining in this competitive market?
  • How are HD maps and GNSS playing important role in autonomous driving?
  • How are the stack players aligning in this market?
  • How are data annotation players placed in this market?
  • Which machine learning/AI techniques will be used majorly in autonomous driving? 

List of Companies


Apple

Aptiv

Argo AI

Autoliv
Baidu

Bosch
Continental
Cruise Automation (a GM company)
Denso

Hyundai Mobis
Mobileye

Nvidia

Valeo

Velodyne LiDAR

Veoneer
Waymo

ZF







*not an exhaustive list. Please download the sample or contact to get sample/abstract document.









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