The push for safety by the regulatory bodies and OEMs across Europe, Asia, and United States by mandating driver monitoring and left-child detection, are creating new avenues for the market growth.
Driver monitoring system (DMS) can be seen today in the passive form such as distraction or drowsiness monitoring in lane departure warning equipped cars to support and enable ADAS vehicles (also referred to as SAE Level 1 cars). As per the operational design domains of the todays level 1 cars, passive DMS is sufficient to handle the driving conditions. However, whether active DMS or in-cabin sensing will be integrated in level 1 cars is a matter of debate.
According to industry trends, level 1 cars will not be integrated with in-cabin camera sensing technologies due to two major reasons-first is the cost of the solution and second is the practicality.
In-cabin sensing technology costs (NIR camera hardware+software or mmW radar especially on chip) in a level 1 car to OEM will add additional cost to the vehicle price. OEMs will have to justify the increased costs of the vehicles to the customers for the added functionality which is not very crucial from the customers point of view. Besides, OEMs already have their supplier partners (Tier 1 and Tier 2s) for passive DMS using steering wheel sensors for drowsiness detection. However design wins by few leading Tier 2s companies such as Seeing Machine and Smart Eye (along with few others) have up until today exclusively been in the premium segment as today’s launches are based on procurements from 2-3 years before. This trend is witnessed even today, where premium cars (equipped with SAE level 2) is driving virtually all market growth for in-cabin sensing.
Secondly, the need (practicality) for in-cabin sensing in a level 1 car is unnecessary. For instance, lane departure warning or assistance system works fine with today’s passive DMS. Adding additional complexity along with the ADAS system on-board will increase the complexity of the solutions and the OEMs and Tier 1s has to find new partners to enable these solutions.
In 2019, of the total partially automated (including level 2 and level 2+) cars sold, 5.1 percent cars were equipped with in-cabin sensing technology. In 2020, this number skyrocketed by 127%. Further growth of 163% is anticipated in 2021, as more and more OEMs start integrating the technology in the models. This is also supported by the fact that some of the leading DMS Tier 2s bagged design wins with European, Chinese, Korean, and Japanese OEMs to integrate in-cabin sensing technologies in last couple of years.
Besides, level 3 (also referred to as conditional automated cars) is another potential market for in- cabin sensing technology with OEM brands of Mercedes, BMW, Honda, Audi, XPeng, among others launching their level 3 cars early this year. According to the estimates, 3 in 10 level 3 cars to be launched in 2021 will have in-cabin sensing as a standard feature on majority of the models and trim levels. By 2030, more than 80% level 3 cars will be equipped with the technology leading to the total potential market of millions cars.
Lastly, level 4 cars developed for highway and urban slow moving environment (such as robotaxis) will also feature in-cabin sensing technology. In case of robotaxis, the in-cabin will be used majority for the occupant monitoring purposes. By 2020, millions of robotaxis could be equipped with the technology.
~xx thousand units of active DMS (in-cabin sensing) was installed in new passenger cars in China in 2019. In 2020Q1, the installations skyrocketed 360% year-on-year to xx units amid the wide use of active DMS in the models priced between RMB150,000 and RMB 200,000 and the adoption by WEY, Xpeng, Geely, to name a few.
By the end of 2020 the total installed base of active DMS was xx thousand units, surging by 399%. Similar trend is expected in 2021, with new models to be launched with L2 and L3 capabilities that includes active DMS installations. According to the estimates, the total sales of in-cabin sensing systems are expected to surge by 302% to xx thousand units in 2021. The future adoption rate is anticipated to be extremely positive of ~xx%, between 2021 and 2030 to reach to sales figure of xx million units by 2030.
United States stands as the largest market globally in terms of active DMS installations with more than xx thousand units in 2019. Although 2020 registered dip in sales of new passenger vehicles, the sales of vehicles integrated with active DMS was considerably higher by xx% to register xx thousand units. In 2021, with newer models with active DMS expected to be launched in the first half of 2021, the year-end sales estimated to be xx thousand units (surge of 82.7%).
The push for safety by the regulatory bodies across Europe and Asia by mandating DMS, will certainly in next few years be observed in US too.
Western European market is technologically in a better position with presence of majority of leading OEMs, Tier 1s, and Tier 2 brands. DMS regulations are laid down by EU and Euro NCAP for higher safety ratings. This consequently will create competition in the European OEMs for integrating active DMS as a better solution for driver monitoring. Besides, majority of the leading European OEM brands has already developed partnerships along with their Tier 1 counterparts to integrate active DMS in their upcoming models. In 2019, the total number of vehicles with active DMS was xx thousand, which has surged to 71 thousand units in 2020, with an exponential growth of xx%, even though most of the year the countries in the region were in lockdown. In 2021, as the economies are streamlined, the market is expected to further grow by xx% to xx thousand units. Within next two to three years as more and more OEMs start integrating active DMS not just in the higher trims of their models but also as a standard feature, the number of installed base in expected to exponentially increase to xx million units by 2030. The compounded growth rate expected during the course of 2021 to 2030 is xx%.
Apart from these three major markets, Japan and South Korea are two of the most lucrative largest automotive markets for active DMS installations. Majority of the leading Japanese and Korean OEMs are integrating active DMS as a standard feature in their level 2 and level 3 (expected in 2021) models. In 2019 the installed base of active DMS was xx thousand and xx thousand respectively in Japan and Korea, however, the penetration of active DMS jumped by triple digits in both these markets to reach xx thousand and xx thousand unit respectively. In 2021, with leading OEM brands in the region expected to launch newer models featuring active DMS, the total number is expected to grow to xx thousand and xx thousand units in Japan and Korea respectively. Both Japanese and Korean regulators has given green signal for deployment of conditional automated (level 3) solutions on the roads, which will consequently increase the demand for active DMS in coming years. Besides, safety regulations around driver monitoring is also going push the demand for active DMS. By 2030, according to the estimates, the total number of vehicles with active DMS is expected to jump to xx million and xx million units in Japan and Korea respectively.
The in-cabin sensing technology volume as discussed in the earlier section was xx thousand units in 2020, expected to cross xx thousand units in 2021. By 2030, the estimated growth rate of the shipments will be 48.3 percent, between 2021 and 2030 to reach sales volume of xx million units.
The in-cabin 3D sensing market was a niche market in 2019, with market value of around USD xx million. Based on the design wins by the top two Tier 2 leaders (Seeing Machine and Smart Eye) during 2016-18, premium OEM brands were expected to launch new models featuring active DMS (in- cabin sensing technology). However, some of these launches got postponed to 2021 due to the pandemic. Although, 2020 was rough in terms of vehicle sales altogether, the in-cabin sensing market witnessed spike by 122% in terms of market value.
Design wins by some of the leading Tier 2 players in last couple of years clearly shows that newer models with active DMS technology is expected in between early 2021 and 2023.